In his latest column in the Baltimore Sun, Political Science Professor and Chair Thomas Schaller wrote about his analysis of Maryland’s gubernatorial election. With the race much closer than many expected, Schaller wrote about five lessons voters can take away from the election.
Schaller discussed how it’s difficult to run as a lieutenant governor, how race could affect the election, how political party favors have been a factor, voter turnout, and Republican candidate Larry Hogan’s campaign strategy.
To read the full column titled “Race, party favors and early voting key in Md. governor’s battle,” click here.
Schaller is participating in a post election forum at UMBC on Thursday, November 13 along with Public Policy Professor and Chair Donald Norris and Washington Post Political Reporter John Wagner. For more information, click here.
An October 29th article in the Baltimore Sun examines how Election Day could play out in Baltimore County, a place where both candidates for governor have been holding campaign appearances in recent days leading up to the election.
Political Science Associate Professor Laura Hussey was quoted in the article and discussed how Baltimore County’s size and partisan diversity make it important territory for candidates to compete for votes.
“It’s attractive territory to campaign on for Democrats and Republicans alike, because both can reach large numbers of voters registered with their party relatively efficiently and simultaneously to get their message out to those outside their base,” Hussey said.
Hussey said even though the governor’s race has become more competitive in recent weeks, she expects Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown will win the race.
“The state partisan balance being what it is, it’s sufficient for Brown just not to alienate Democrats and make sure Democrats show up at the polls, especially in the state’s largest counties,” she said. “Hogan…must persuade large numbers of Democrats to either vote against their party or stay home.”
“This task is not quite so daunting as it sounds, though, because Republicans consistently do better in gubernatorial elections than in party registration statistics, suggesting that more than a few Maryland Democrats aren’t exactly loyal partisans.”
To read the full article, click here.
On Wednesday, October 29, the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies released a report on black voter turnout and the 2014 midterm elections. The report was co-authored by Tyson King-Meadows, Chair of the Africana Studies Department and Associate Professor of Political Science, and Andra Gillespie, Associate Professor of Political Science and Interim Chair of the Department of African American Studies at Emory University.
The report determined that black voters are a critical component of the electorate in 17 competitive gubernatorial and Senate races across the country. It also found that black voter participation declines in midterm elections, and “assuming a black vote share identical to 2010, the 2014 midterm election cycle will be a challenging year for Democrats, even with overwhelming African‐American support.”
In conducting research for the report, King-Meadows and Gillespie analyzed national and state‐specific registration and voting patterns, black‐white differences in participation and in candidate preference, and the dynamics of inter‐racial coalitions needed to secure Democratic victories. To read the full report, click here.
King-Meadows and Gillespie’s report received considerable press coverage, including the Washington Post, The Hill and Christian Science Monitor. For a complete list of coverage, click below:
Even with ‘mobilized’ black voters, Democrats could struggle in South (Christian Science Monitor)
Democrats needs black voters on Election Day. But they need white Southerners even more. (Washington Post)
The Party’s Over: Black Voters Must Turn Out for Themselves (BET)
Dems pin hopes on black vote (The Hill)
Voting Impact: Black Turnout and 2014 Midterms Findings Released (Black Enterprise)
African-American Turn-out Up in Early Voting (Breitbart)
Will the black vote matter in 2014? (Sun Sentinel)
On Thursday, November 13, the Post-Election Forum will take place at 4:00 p.m. in the Albin O. Kuhn Library Gallery. Join experienced political analysts for an engaging discussion of the 2014 Maryland Gubernatorial election – the campaigns, the candidates, the issues, and the outcomes.
Speakers include Public Policy Professor and Chair Donald F. Norris, Political
Science Professor and Chair Thomas F. Schaller, and Washington Post Political Reporter John Wagner.
The event is sponsored by the Maryland Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (MIPAR) and the Department of Public Policy.
On October 22, the Baltimore Sun published an article about Baltimore County campaign signs and how some are set up in a way to display bipartisanship. Laura Hussey, an associate professor of political science, was quoted in the article and discussed Democrat Tom Quirk’s campaign signs being placed near Republican Joseph Hooe’s. Quirk is running for re-election as 1st District County Councilman, and Hooe is running for state delegate in District 12. Hussey said it’s not unusual for candidates to tout their work across party lines.
“It may influence voters’ perceptions of a candidate’s character traits, and these traits are a factor in some voters’ choices,” Hussey said. “Most people…seem to prefer collaborative over combatitive personalities.”
In an article published October 22 in the Herald-Mail, Hussey commented on Maryland voter turnout trends heading into Election Day on November 4. Hussey said she doesn’t expect a sudden uptick in voters turning out for the election next month. She said that residents pay less attention to elections in an “off-election” year.
“Residents are not saturated with political information as you would in a presidential election year,” Hussey said. “Voters are less engaged.”
To read complete versions of both articles, click below:
Campaign signs cross the line in Baltimore County when it comes to political parties (Baltimore Sun)
Washington County voter turnout declining for gubernatorial elections (Herald-Mail)
An article published October 19 in The Hill examines several elections in the South where Democratic candidates have close ties to Bill and Hillary Clinton in states such as Arkansas and Kentucky. The article mentions how it may be difficult for Democratic candidates in those states to distance themselves from an unpopular current president.
Thomas Schaller, professor and chair of political science, was interviewed for the article and said, “I’m constantly puzzled when other people are surprised that there hasn’t been this Democratic revival in the South.” Schaller has argued that Democrats should make the South less of a priority in winning elections, adding, “my feeling is that the underlying fundamentals in the region work against the Democrats.”
Schaller said Hillary Clinton is the Democrats’ best chance to win in the South in 2016, but even if she’s successful, it wouldn’t necessarily mean significant changes for Democratic strategy in the South.
“I think she’s a good test case for how competitive the Democrats can be in the South, because she can pair her husband’s appeal in the more rural South and presumably draw support in the places where Obama did well,” Schaller said. “If she can’t start flipping states, then who is?”
To read the full article in The Hill, click here.
In his latest column in the Baltimore Sun, Political Science Professor and Chair Thomas Schaller writes about the increasingly competitive Maryland gubernatorial election. He compares the campaign strategy of Connie Morella, a former moderate Republican congresswoman from Maryland’s 8th District, to Republican candidate Larry Hogan, stating that Hogan needs to focus on certain issues to have a chance at winning the election.
“The Sun’s new poll shows Mr. Brown leading Mr. Hogan statewide by 7 points, a margin similar to the average yielded by the three previous statewide polls. Among men, Mr. Hogan leads by 8 points, 43 percent to 35 percent,” Schaller writes. “But Mr. Brown’s lead among women — 49 percent to 33 percent — is twice that. Mr. Hogan is within striking distance, but he can win only if he keeps the focus exclusively on topics related to job growth, the economy, state spending and fiscal management.”
To read Schaller’s full column in the Baltimore Sun titled, “The Connie Morella effect,” click here.