Political Science and Public Policy Faculty Provide Additional Election Analysis

Following last week’s election, UMBC political science and public policy faculty continued to provide analysis as the final vote totals were tallied and future policy issues were discussed.

Tom SchallerPolitical Science Professor and Chair Thomas Schaller wrote a column in the Baltimore Sun in which he analyzed the results in Maryland’s gubernatorial election. He noted that Governor-Elect Larry Hogans’s victory was, “less about turnout than a conversion of the Maryland electorate.” Schaller discussed his column on WYPR’s “Midday with Dan Rodricks” (begins at 23:40) and WBAL’s “The C4 Show.”

Donald Norris UMBCPublic Policy Professor and Chair Donald Norris was interviewed for a Washington Post article in which he commented on how the Congressional elections will affect Maryland: “’It’s going to be a really ugly two years’ for Maryland, said Norris. In particular, he said, federal funding for the Chesapeake Bay cleanup will likely be at risk. Republicans may also do their best to blunt federal regulations governing the bay environment.”

Roy Meyers (UMBC)Political Science Professor Roy Meyers was quoted in Grist and discussed Maryland’s stormwater management fee. He stated, “there’s no way to reduce your tax burden if you come up with ways of mitigating stormwater runoff at your home.” Meaning, for example, if you install equipment in your roof that captures the rain, preventing runoff, you still have to pay the stormwater fee.

Tyson King-MeadowsTyson King-Meadows, Chair of the Africana Studies Department and Associate Professor of Political Science, was quoted in a Salt Lake Tribune article and discussed a political study in Utah that he conducted with colleagues at Brigham Young University on racial attitudes and campaign messaging.

To read and listen to complete election coverage by UMBC faculty during the week of November 10, click below.

Thomas Schaller:
Race had a role in Hogan’s win (Baltimore Sun op-ed) 
Midday with Dan Rodricks (WYPR)
The C4 Show (WBAL- audio not posted)

Donald Norris:
With new Congress, D.C. Region is Losing Clout (Washington Post)

Roy Meyers:
Was the shocking outcome of Maryland’s gubernatorial race about rain, or something else? (Grist)

Tyson King-Meadows:
Mia Love: Utahns care little about race (Salt Lake Tribune)

Felipe Filomeno, Political Science, Op-Ed in the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

The Council on Hemispheric Affairs, based in Washington, D.C., recently published an op-ed by Felipe Filomeno, an Assistant Professor of Political Science, about recent events in Brazilian politics.

In the column, Filomeno argues that the tight victory of President Dilma Rousseff in her bid for another term and the election of a more conservative parliament signal the exhaustion of Lulismo as a mode of governing and strategy of national development. He writes that the Workers’ Party (PT) now faces the challenge of forging new connections with the civil society to promote progressive changes in a context of economic difficulties and political polarization.

“Now, either the PT will be able to turn the difficult elections of 2014 into a ‘labor pain’ from which a new social pact for development could emerge, or it will see a revitalized President Rousseff immobilized in the face of stronger conservative forces waiting for a new ‘interrupted construction,’” Filomeno writes.

To read the full column titled “Brazilian Elections: Labor Pain?” click here.

UMBC Political Science and Public Policy Faculty Provide National, State, and Local Election Analysis

Tom SchallerSeveral UMBC faculty have been in the news providing 2014 midterm election analysis. Thomas Schaller, Professor and Chair of the Political Science Department, appeared on MSNBC’s “All in with Chris Hayes,” to analyze the election results and discuss how Republican control in Congress could affect legislation in the future. In addition, Schaller co-wrote a column for Politico Magazine before the election in which he discussed pre-election polls of Latino voters and how they could have an affect in predicting the outcome in Colorado’s Senate race. Schaller was quoted in a Washington Post story before the election discussing how the Maryland gubernatorial race turned unexpectedly close in the days leading up to Election Day.

Donald Norris UMBCDonald Norris, Professor and Chair of Public Policy, provided live election night analysis on WJZ-TV. To watch a clip of Norris discussing the Maryland governor’s race and candidate campaign strategy, click here. The day before the election, Norris also appeared on WJZ discussing how voter turnout could affect the race. Norris was interviewed by the Washington Post and commented on how political attitudes nationwide could have affected the election outcome in Maryland. He also discussed gerrymandering and its affect on Maryland congressional races. In the Baltimore Sun, Norris commented on the importance of Baltimore County in the election. In Politico Magazine, Norris talked about campaign strategies in the governor’s race.

Tyson King-MeadowsTyson King-Meadows, Chair of the Africana Studies Department and Associate Professor of Political Science, co-authored a report on black voter turnout and how it could affect several key Senate and gubernatorial races across the country. King-Meadows and his colleague received extensive media coverage for their findings.

Roy Meyers (UMBC)Political Science Professor Roy Meyers wrote an op-ed published on MarylandReporter.com discussing the outcome of the Maryland gubernatorial election. He wrote that “pocketbook” issues were most important in the race, and little scrutiny given to candidate policies made citizens lose out on critical information and may have had a strong impact on the results of the race.

On Thursday, November 13, Schaller and Norris are participating in a Post Election Forum at UMBC along with Washington Post Political Reporter John Wagner. The event takes place at 4:00 p.m. in the Albin O. Kuhn Library Gallery.

For a complete list of election analysis coverage by UMBC faculty, click below.

Thomas Schaller:
Obstruction works: Why compromise isn’t on the horizon (MSNBC)
Getting Latinos Wrong (Politico Magazine)
Maryland Governor’s Race has Turned Unexpectedly Tight (Washington Post)

Donald Norris:
Martin O’Malley’s First Presidential Primary (Politico Magazine)
UMBC Analyst Discusses Today’s Elections (WJZ)
UMBC Students Talk about Md. Gubernatorial Race (WJZ)
Hogan won Maryland Governor’s Race by Seizing the Message of the Campaign (Washington Post)
In Maryland’s eight congressional races, incumbents face little competition (Washington Post) 
Candidates hope to pry ‘soft’ supporters off the couch (Baltimore Sun)

Tyson King-Meadows:
Tyson King-Meadows, Africana Studies and Political Science, Co-Authors Report on Black Voter Turnout and the 2014 Midterm Elections

Roy Meyers:
Maryland citizens were the biggest losers (MarylandReporter.com)

Thomas Schaller, Political Science, Op-Ed in the Baltimore Sun

Tom SchallerIn his latest column in the Baltimore Sun, Political Science Professor and Chair Thomas Schaller wrote about his analysis of Maryland’s gubernatorial election. With the race much closer than many expected, Schaller wrote about five lessons voters can take away from the election.

Schaller discussed how it’s difficult to run as a lieutenant governor, how race could affect the election, how political party favors have been a factor, voter turnout, and Republican candidate Larry Hogan’s campaign strategy.

To read the full column titled “Race, party favors and early voting key in Md. governor’s battle,” click here.

Schaller is participating in a post election forum at UMBC on Thursday, November 13 along with Public Policy Professor and Chair Donald Norris and Washington Post Political Reporter John Wagner. For more information, click here.

Laura Hussey, Political Science, in the Baltimore Sun

An October 29th article in the Baltimore Sun examines how Election Day could play out in Baltimore County, a place where both candidates for governor have been holding campaign appearances in recent days leading up to the election.

Laura Hussey

Political Science Associate Professor Laura Hussey was quoted in the article and discussed how Baltimore County’s size and partisan diversity make it important territory for candidates to compete for votes.

“It’s attractive territory to campaign on for Democrats and Republicans alike, because both can reach large numbers of voters registered with their party relatively efficiently and simultaneously to get their message out to those outside their base,” Hussey said.

Hussey said even though the governor’s race has become more competitive in recent weeks, she expects Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown will win the race.

“The state partisan balance being what it is, it’s sufficient for Brown just not to alienate Democrats and make sure Democrats show up at the polls, especially in the state’s largest counties,” she said. “Hogan…must persuade large numbers of Democrats to either vote against their party or stay home.”

“This task is not quite so daunting as it sounds, though, because Republicans consistently do better in gubernatorial elections than in party registration statistics, suggesting that more than a few Maryland Democrats aren’t exactly loyal partisans.”

To read the full article, click here.

Tyson King-Meadows, Africana Studies and Political Science, Co-Authors Report on Black Voter Turnout and the 2014 Midterm Elections

Tyson King-MeadowsOn Wednesday, October 29, the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies released a report on black voter turnout and the 2014 midterm elections. The report was co-authored by Tyson King-Meadows, Chair of the Africana Studies Department and Associate Professor of Political Science, and Andra Gillespie, Associate Professor of Political Science and Interim Chair of the Department of African American Studies at Emory University.

The report determined that black voters are a critical component of the electorate in 17 competitive gubernatorial and Senate races across the country. It also found that black voter participation declines in midterm elections, and “assuming a black vote share identical to 2010, the 2014 midterm election cycle will be a challenging year for Democrats, even with overwhelming African‐American support.”

In conducting research for the report, King-Meadows and Gillespie analyzed national and state‐specific registration and voting patterns, black‐white differences in participation and in candidate preference, and the dynamics of inter‐racial coalitions needed to secure Democratic victories. To read the full report, click here.

King-Meadows and Gillespie’s report received considerable press coverage, including the Washington Post, The Hill and Christian Science Monitor. For a complete list of coverage, click below:

Even with ‘mobilized’ black voters, Democrats could struggle in South (Christian Science Monitor)
Democrats needs black voters on Election Day. But they need white Southerners even more. (Washington Post)
The Party’s Over: Black Voters Must Turn Out for Themselves (BET)
Dems pin hopes on black vote (The Hill)
Voting Impact: Black Turnout and 2014 Midterms Findings Released (Black Enterprise)
African-American Turn-out Up in Early Voting (Breitbart)
Will the black vote matter in 2014? (Sun Sentinel)
A Look at How Black Voters Affected the Election Results (Atlanta Black Star) 

Social Sciences Forum: Post-Election Forum (11/13)

On Thursday, November 13, the Post-Election Forum will take place at 4:00 p.m. in the Albin O. Kuhn Library Gallery. Join experienced political analysts for an engaging discussion of the 2014 Maryland Gubernatorial election – the campaigns, the candidates, the issues, and the outcomes.

Speakers include Public Policy Professor and Chair Donald F. Norris, Political
Science Professor and Chair Thomas F. Schaller, and Washington Post Political Reporter John Wagner.

The event is sponsored by the Maryland Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (MIPAR) and the Department of Public Policy.